Obama
Though I have often complained about the coverage Barack Obama has received since he arrived on the national scene, and doubt I would vote for him, I have to admit I'm starting to like the guy.
Perhaps I shoud clarify that: Watching his speeches, Obama sets himself apart from almost everyone else with his (seemingly) genuine optimism. He has a charm, and it's difficult not to get caught up in his storm.
He's not unlike Bill Clinton in that way. I disagreed with Clinton on a number of things (though not as many as you might think), but the man was difficult to dismiss because of his charisma and his cunning.
To this day, even though I'm convinced Clinton is a scoundrel, it's hard to not like the side he shows us.
This is not to equate Clinton to Obama. I have no way of knowing what kind of person Obama is, but he seems like a good person who wants what's best for his country. Two years ago, he dismissed speculation he may run for President in 2008. A few days ago, he announced he was in.
I could write about his pledge to Illinois voters, but really, I can't blame him for changing his mind. I doubt two years ago he was thinking about the Presidency, but the last two years have convinced a number of people he's the man for the job.
Obama is hot right now. Who knows what the political climate will be like in 2012? The time is now.
My gut tells me he won't win. I could give a number of reasons, but they really boil down to two words: Hillary Clinton.
The former First Lady and current New York Senator is still the party's biggest star. By 2008, she will have been a senator almost eight years. It's still not much, but it will give her an edge in experience.
As far as campaigning goes, she has been in that business far longer. She has been involved deeply in two presidential elections already, and her side has won both.
I don't like the Clintons, but they have been on center stage far too long for me to underestimate them.
I think the media will eventually turn on Obama in favor of Clinton, and I think Clinton will prevail in the primaries. The Clintons win, and I fear Obama will be the strongest competition standing in the machine's way.
Obama has already seen some skeptical pieces written about his hopes. He can expect many more.
The most disturbing part of this is most are talking about the Democratic side of things, while no Republican has broken away from the pack. I could go for a John McCain-Rudy Guiliani ticket, but I doubt the majority of voters on my side will agree.
I honestly think McCain and Guiliani are the only ones who can challenge Clinton. But I don't think they'll get the chance.
And that's what concerns me most.