Saturday, April 02, 2005

MLB Predictions
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Florida Marlins
4, Philadelphia Phillies
5. Mon--err --Washington Sen--err-Nationals
Why:
I will not pick against the Braves until someobody beats them. Technically (Despite three world series qualifiers coming from the NL East other than Atlanta) the Braves are the only NL East Champion since the breakup in 1994. Plus, the rotation should be as good as any in the NL. I don't like Smoltz in the rotation, but he will be solid there.

NL Central
1. Houston Astros
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Milwaukee Brewers
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Why: Any of four teams could win the Central, but the Astros will likely be the most durable, and St. Louis didn't do much in the offseason after their emberassing performance in the Series. I love the Reds, but they never stay healthy. The Cubs are minus Sosa and plus a lot of overpaid, mediocre veterans. And injuries. Poor Lloyd McClendon in Pittsburgh, likely the first firing in baseball this season.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

Why: San Francisco will be baseball's version of Geriatric Park. But looking at the roster, from Alou to Vizquel to Barry "Get my son in this shot" Bonds, they ought to be able to pull together one season before the bodies break down like an overused '86 Aerostar.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Why: Three consecutive years without a World Series ring have got to be taking their toll on George Steinbrenner. That's why he seems intent on stocking his team with nothing but superstars, while slowly but surely leading the Yankees to mediocrity. The Red Sox will win the division because they still have superior pitching, despite Pedro's departure. How much longer will Randy last? Who knows. But the Yankees free agent signings are still questionable (Jaret Wright?). The rest of the teams have no shot, but they do play on the east coast (save Toronto) so expect them to be on ESPN every three minutes.
Oh, and note to the journalism community: Most of us are insulted by the over-dramatization of the Yankees and Red Sox, not enthralled by it.

AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
Why: No one is more critical of the Indians than yours truely. But the Tribe is stocked this year with nine solid starters and what should be one of the best rotations in the American League. The Twins are still great, but the division will hinge on one player: Bob Wickman. If he can set the bullpen right, the Indians will win 95 games. If he blows up, they nay win 80. But the Indians still are not getting respect, despite running close with the Twins until falling apart in August.
Some are even picking the Tigers. I will buy my Detroit buddy Joe a steak dinner if that happens. The reason? It won't.

AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the surrounding suburbs of Southern California
2. Oakland A's
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
Why: The A's still have the best rotation in the division, the Artists Formerly Known as The Anaheim Angels have the most overall talent. You learn after a while not to doubt the A's --in the regular season anyway. The A's are in many ways the Braves of the West. I pick the Angels, but it's really a coin toss.

Post Season
AL Wildcard: Twins
NL Wildcard:Cardinals
AL Champion: Indians
NL Champion:Cardinals
World Series Champion: Indians

2 Comments:

At 2:32 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

houston come on. no beltran and aging bagwell, biggio. nixon forever

 
At 7:04 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with most of those predictions, especially Detroit not winning the AL Central. I've seen knowledgeable baseball people genuflecting to Comerica Park because, what, the Tigers improved off a 119-loss season in 2003? Their offense can certainly do some mashing, but their starting rotation and bullpen are both distant fourths in the division.
As much of an Indians fan as I am, I'll give the edge to the Twins in the division race for three reasons: previous success, Johan Santana and Joe Nathan. Cleveland's pitching has some solid pieces, but doesn't peak like Minnesota's. Chicago has the deepest starting rotation in the division, which makes them a threat as well.
In the 10-year history of the wild-card playoff spot in baseball, the AL Central is the only division never to have a wild card come out of it. I predict this will be the year, and I predict the Indians will be that team.

 

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